Eight-year cycle: Sensex may hit 21,000 jackpot in 2011 December 6, 2009
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Good morning friends. It was been an eight year cycle of Sensex to hit 21,000 jackpot for 2011. This sounds good for all the investors.
If you are a retail investor looking to make money on Dalal Street, you may have a little over 12 months left to get your portfolio right. The Indian stock market is in the midst of a consolidation phase that will set the tone for the next bull run which, according to chartists, is set to begin in the first half of 2011.
The technical analysis, based on a classical eight-year time cycle that the market has followed since 1984, projects the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) benchmark Sensex to break the 21,000 barrier by early 2011 and embark on a bigger bull run. “The current rally is an upward leg of the larger consolidation pattern,” said Anup Bagchi of ICICI Securities. “In 2010, the Sensex will fluctuate in the range of 12,500 and 21,000. The next
major peak is expected in 2016.”
The analysis shows that the equity market tends to be range bound after doubling from the bottom. For instance, after the 13-month bear phase witnessed during 1992-93, the Sensex jumped more than 100% from 1,980 to 4,643 before going into a consolidation phase for almost four years. The larger bull run, which started in 1998, then took the Sensex beyond the 6,000-mark in Feb 2000 before markets were spooked by the bursting of the tech bubble.
The next cycle from 2000 to 2008 also witnessed a similar trend. After a three-year bear run between 2000 and 2003, the Sensex went up by more than 100% from the 2,900 mark to 6,250, which was followed by a correction of almost 33%. This next bull phase started in 2005.
Going by this theory, analysts expect the markets to see some correction over 12 months. “It could correct up to 11,000 at some time. There are, in fact, likely to be large swings in both directions,” says Rohit Srivastva, fund manager at Sharekhan.
A SundayET article dated January 4 had, citing technical analysis, predicted the market stabilizing from April after bottoming out in February/March following the completion of a 13-14 month downtrend.
Ashu Madan, president of equity broking at Religare Securities, believes the Indian stock market is already under a different kind of bull run. “We may be in a consolidation phase but the euphoria has begun to build. For retail investors, this period leading to the bull run will be a litmus test. They should not let their learnings of last market crash act as a baggage now,” he says.
Low readings on India Volatility Index (VIX) too show that the overall perception among investors about market risk has reduced. The VIX is currently trading in the mid 20s, which is in sharp contrast to the same period last year when it was trading in the 50s.
Over a longer period of time, analysts anticipate the markets to touch 25,000 levels by 2012. “Going by the cycle, the Sensex should touch 32,000 levels by mid 2014,” says Sandeep Wagle, chief technical analyst at Angel Broking. – The Economic Times
Food inflation rises to 15.58 pct November 26, 2009
Posted by dhirendra08 in Expensive Food, Price Increase.Tags: Fuel, Food Inflation, Potatoes, Poultry chicken, Non-food Articles, Raw Silk
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Good morning friends. There will be a food inflation that rises to 15.58 pct. With that thing, we will experience hardship as food is the main necessity of each and every one of us. As for some advice, we should be intelligent to think of other things that will help us in our daily necessity need of food. We can plant vegetables in our garden. That can help a lot.
Food inflation rose to 15.58 per cent for the second week of November from 14.55 per cent in the previous week as potatoes and pulses turned costlier.
On an annual basis, potato prices more than doubled, pulses became expensive by over 35 per cent, while onions rose by 27 per cent.
Price rise was significant on weekly basis with urad and poultry chicken rising by 15 per cent each, eggs by 8 per cent, moong by 6 per cent, arhar by 5 per cent and fruits & vegetables by 3 per cent.
Among the non-food articles, raw silk turned expensive by 3 per cent, while fodder and groundnut seed by 2 per cent each.
Fuel index though remained unchanged at the previous week’s level. – Indian Express
Sensex surges 194 points in early trade November 16, 2009
Posted by dhirendra08 in Early Trade, Firming Trend, Positive Zone.Tags: Asian Bourses, Asian Market, Bombay Stock Exchange, Brokers, DLF Ltd, Foreign funds, Funds, Hang Seng Index, Japan Nikkei, Maruti Suzuki, National Stock Exchange, Reliance Industries, Reliance Infra, Sensex, State Bank Of India, Sterliet Industries, Tata Motors, Trade, Trends, US Dow Jones Industrial Average, Zone
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Good morning friends. Sensex rushes 194 points in early trade. The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark index Sensex gathered more than 194 points to trade over 17,000 points level, extending previous session’s gains on continued buying by funds, driven by firming trends on the other Asian bourses.
The 30-share BSE Sensex shot up by 194.48 points, or 1.15 per cent to trade well above 17,000 points level at 17,043.31 in early trade with all the sectoral indices trading in positive zone with gains up to 2.25 per cent.
The wide-based National Stock Exchange index Nifty also gained 56.45 points to 5,055.40.
Brokers said pick up in buying by foreign funds, sparked by firming trends on the other Asian markets in line with Friday’s gains on the US market.
Major gainers, which supported the Sensex were Reliance Industries by 1.29 per cent to Rs 2,143.95, Reliance Infra by 0.99 per cent to Rs 1,164.05, DLF Ltd by 2.54 per cent to Rs 377.90, State Bank of India by 2.43 per cent to Rs 2,354, Sterlite Industries by 2.42 per cent to Rs 857.50, Maruti Suzuki by 2.47 per cent to Rs 1,516.35 and Tata Motors by 1.87 per cent to Rs 631.10.
Meanwhile, the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 1.3 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei 0.15 per cent higher in the morning trade today. The US Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.72 per cent higher on Friday. -Indian Express
Asia shares dip; dollar shaky on cautious Fed (2 of 2) November 6, 2009
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Takeover rejected
In Asia, the MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks traded outside Japan was down 0.9 per cent while the Thomson Reuters index of regional shares was 1.4 per cent lower.
Shares in Australia were down 0.8 per cent, but toll-road operator Transurban Group surged as much as 20 per cent after the company rejected a takeover offer by two Canadian pension funds but said it was open to talks.
Japanese government bond futures fell, tracking a slide in longer-term US Treasuries overnight on investor fears of excessive government debt supply after the Fed’s statement.
The euro was down slightly at $1.4841, from $1.4865 in early trade, as investors awaited a European Central Bank meeting later on Thursday. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates at a record low but may give clues on when it will start weaning banks off cheap funds.
The Bank of England also meets on Thursday with policymakers set to decide whether to inject more stimulus into the British economy.
Gold hovered around $1,088 an ounce after hitting another record high overnight, at $1,097.25.
In New Zealand, markets were still pricing in monetary tightening by the end of April but the Kiwi dollar fell after comments from the central bank that the economic recovery was more vulnerable than in Australia and after the jobless rate hit a nine-year high at 6.5 per cent.
“New Zealand has had a recession, and the pick-up is slower and more vulnerable – a difference financial markets do not appear to appreciate,” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard said in notes prepared for a business group.
The Kiwi fell to as low as $0.7192, from around $0.7270 before Bollard’s comments.
The oil price dipped 0.6 per cent to $79.9 a barrel, after gaining more than $3 a barrel in the past three days. – The Times of India
Asia shares dip; dollar shaky on cautious Fed (1 of 2) November 5, 2009
Posted by dhirendra08 in Biggest Economy, Extended Period, Light Profit, Modest Gains.Tags: Asian Shares, Economic Data, Economic Measures, Economy, Gains, Inflation Pressure, Investors, Loss, Monetary Policy, Policy guidance, Profit, Sales Growth, US Federal Reserve
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Good morning friends. Asian shares dipped on Thursday, and the dollar fell after the US Federal Reserve vowed to keep rates near zero for “an extended period” and said the recovery of the world’s biggest economy would be sluggish.
The Fed’s pledge to stick to a very loose monetary policy was expected and gave investors little new to trade on, although its cautious economic outlook prompted light profit taking.
Shares of exporters were hit by Asian currencies’ modest gains. The dollar index was flat at around 75.8 but the US currency was quoted at 90.54 yen, down from 90.75 in late Asian trade on Wednesday, and slipped against other currencies.
“I do not think the Fed signaled any change,” said Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The policy guidance remains the same. I think the downtrend in the US dollar is intact and we could see the dollar index fall to around 74 in the short term.”
Japan’s Nikkei slid 1.4 per cent as the yen’s advance hurt exporters, but Nissan Motor was up 1 per cent after soaring sales in China prompted the carmaker to reverse its annual outlook to a profit from a loss.
A rise in the Korean won, to as high as 1,174 to the dollar from 1,178.4 at Wednesday’s close, also hurt exporters in Seoul where the KOSPI index tumbled 1.4 per cent. That was despite upbeat economic data, including double-digit department store sales growth and a further rise in exports to China last month.
“Investors are looking at the first batch of fourth-quarter indicators now that we are unsure about whether markets will remain solid in November or not,” said Kim Seung-han, a market analyst at HI Investment & Securities in Seoul.
The Dow Jones rose just 0.3 per cent on Wednesday, giving up earlier gains after the Fed’s statement, which said the lack of inflation pressure would enable it to maintain loose monetary policy.
Network equipment vendor Cisco Systems posted positive earnings after the bell though, sending its shares up 3.1 per cent. And there was encouraging economic news as data showed the US services industry grew modestly for a second month in October and private sector job losses slowed.
European shares turn positive, oils support November 2, 2009
Posted by dhirendra08 in Big Price.Tags: Banking Shares, Consumer Sentiments, Crude Oil Price, Energy Shares, European Shares, Oil
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Good morning friends. European shares turned positive after hitting a four-week low in early trading on Monday, with banking shares recovering after losses and energy shares following stronger crude oil prices.
By 0856 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 0.1 per cent at 977.39 points after falling to a four-week low of 968.19. It slipped 2.1 per cent on Friday, the biggest one-day slide in nearly four months, hit by weak US consumer sentiment data.
Banks gained some ground after falling earlier in the session. Standard Chartered, HSBC, BNP Paribas and Societe Generale rose 0.2 to 0.7 per cent.
But Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds fell 1.1 per cent and 5.4 per cent respectively. The Daily Telegraph reported that the UK government will unveil plans this week to spend 30 billion pounds ($49.3 billion) buying further shares of rescued banks.
Energy shares tracked crude oil prices, which rose 0.7 per cent. BP, Royal Dutch Shell, BG Group, Repsol, Total and StatoilHydro added 0.4 to 1.7 per cent. - The Economic Times
Nifty on recovery path; ITC, M&M, TCS up October 23, 2009
Posted by dhirendra08 in Clear Direction.Tags: Bombay Stock Exchange, Global Market, Indian Equities, Inflation, Markets, Pharma, Profit, Traders
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Good morning friends. There is a recovery path in ITC, M&M,TCS.
Indian equities were gaining momentum as buying activity resumed at lower levels. Indices got support from FMCG, pharma and IT stocks while capital goods space was a little subdued.
“The correction for the markets for 150-200 points was due but the time frame of it was not known as markets had risen very fast from its last October lows. Seeing markets for last 3-4 sessions the correction is happening as it is loosing its uptrend, though on weak global markets and profit booking by short term traders.
Fundamentally we are still going well but technically till we hold the 4950 levels, stock specific buying interest may emerge in the market. We will need to wait and watch the situation to get a clear direction for short to medium term. Domestic news flow like the RIL –RNRL case hearing, banks downgrade by the Moody’s, increasing inflation and the CBI scanner on DoT may bring in some action in sector specific stocks,” said Anand Rathi report.
At 12:52 pm, National Stock Exchange’s Nifty was at 5031.95, up 43.35 points or 0.87 per cent. The 50-share index touched a low of 4983.80 and high of 5054.95.
Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex was at 16921.50, up 131.76 points or 0.78 per cent. The index hit a low of 16795.66 and high of 17006.77.
BSE Midcap Index was up 1.63 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 1.48 per cent higher.
Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE FMCG Index moved 2.29 per cent higher, BSE Healthcare Index climbed 2.12 per cent and BSE IT Index was up 1.91 per cent.
BSE Capital Goods Index slipped 0.73 per cent and BSE Oil&gas Index declined 0.59 per cent.
Hindalco Industries (3.66%), Mahindra & Mahindra (3.44%), ITC (3.37%), Axis Bank (3.09%) and TCS (2.96%) were amongst the Nifty gainers.
GAIL (-2.54%), L&T (-2.10%), Grasim Industries (-1.43%), Reliance Industries (-1.09%) and JP Associates (-0.97%) were amongst the losers.
Larsen & Toubro (L&T), which declared its results for the quarter ending September 2009 on Thursday, appears to be struggling to come out of the recessionary pull, with barely 6% growth in sales excluding the business it has exited. This is the second successive quarter of muted growth for the company, which had managed a sales growth of 30% in H2 2009 at the peak of the slowdown.
Reliance Industries on Thursday belittled the importance of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between members of the Ambani family and said the government’s gas utilisation policy had taken away the company’s freedom to market gas. RIL’s lawyer Harish Salve resumed his arguments on Thursday and as on previous days was peppered by questions from the justices on various aspects of the complex case.
Market breadth was positive on the BSE with 1785 advances and 814 declines. – The Economic Times
Global wheat trade set to slump by 17% October 6, 2009
Posted by dhirendra08 in Big Banks, Lare Banks, Sustainable Recovery.Tags: Banks, Consumer Sentiments, Economy, Enegy Stocks, Growth, Investors, Majo Stock Indicator, Oil, Stock Market, trading
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Good morning friends. It’s a good thing to know that the global wheat trade sets to slump by 17% .
The first growth in the service industry in a year and upbeat comments about big banks pulled investors into the stock market after two losing weeks.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 112 points as all major stock indicators gained 1 percent.
The Institute for Supply Management said its service index rose to 50.9 in September from 48.4 in August. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading of 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction. The index hadn’t grown since August of last year.
Financial and energy stocks led the gains after Goldman Sachs raised its rating on large banks and the price of oil jumped.
The advance follows the market’s first back-to-back weekly drops since July, which came as reports on manufacturing and consumer sentiment fell short of expectations.
Stocks had fallen for seven of eight days, which likely brought buying interest from investors seeking bargains. The Dow lost 332 points, or 3.4 percent, in the past two weeks. Monday’s advance also came in light trading volume, which can skew price moves. Bigger tests of the market will arrive in the coming weeks when companies begin turning in earnings reports for the July-September quarter.
Thomas J. Lee, chief U.S. equity strategist at J.P. Morgan, said the improvement in the service index is encouraging because it could help boost confidence in the economy, a key element of a sustainable recovery.
“We really have to see the animal spirits kick in in the next six months, which is confidence in both businesses and consumers,” he said.
The Dow rose 112.08, or 1.2 percent, to 9,599.75, its first gain in four days. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 15.25, or 1.5 percent, to 1,040.46, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 20.04, or 1 percent, to 2,068.15.
Lee said the market’s two-week drop is a healthy sign of investor caution after stocks rose for seven months off of 12-year lows in March. He also said the mixed economic readings aren’t surprising and don’t mean the rally is over.
“We should be kind of looking for data to come in a little choppy because no recovery is going to be linear and smooth,” he said. – The Economic Times
Stocks open higher; Bharti rallies October 1, 2009
Posted by dhirendra08 in Decent Profit, Strong Relative Strength, Strong Support Level, Weak Cues.Tags: Asia, Buyer, Buyer Interest, Capital Goods, Current Momentum, Dow Jones Industrial, Equities, Gas, Gas Sector, Global Recovery, Hongkong, Marginal Gains, National Stock Exchange, Nikkei, Nirmal Bang Securities, Oil, Oil Sector, Oversheas Shores, Profit, Shanghai, The Nasdaq Composite Index, The Standard & Poor, US Stocks
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Equities opened with marginal gains on Thursday amid weak cues from overseas shores. But the star performer was Bharti Airtel which attracted buyer interest after talks with MTN Group collapsed.
Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex was trading at 17188, higher by 61 points while National Stock Exchange’s Nifty climbed 5.6 points to 5089.
“Nifty has strong support at 5,010-4,980 levels and resistance is placed at 5,150. Technically we see this current momentum heading towards the 5,210/17,550 levels shortly from where we could witness some decent profit taking happening.
Capital Goods and Oil & gas sector is currently showing strong relative strength and we believe that these could outperform in coming days,” said Nirmal Bang Securities in a note.
US stocks fell on Wednesday after a surprising contraction in an index of Midwest business activity, but buying of technology bellwethers like Cisco Systems Inc at the end of a strong quarter limited losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 29.92 points, or 0.31 per cent, to 9,712.28. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 3.53 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 1,057.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 1.62 points, or 0.08 percent, to 2,122.42.
Stocks across Asia declined following Wall Street cues after a surprise drop in manufacturing in the US cast doubts on the strength of a global recovery, while the dollar was on the back foot against higher-yielding currencies. The Nikkei lost 1.41 per cent, Topix fell 1.28 per cent, Straits Times shed 0.73 per cent and Kospi slid 2.43 per cent. Markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong were shut for China’s National Day holidays. – The Economic Times
