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Markets breathe easy after volatility January 31, 2009

Posted by dhirendra1972 in Earnings Season, Foreign funds, Insurance Firms, Market Capitalization, Market Stability, Relief from Volatility.
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Good morning friends.  Many says that domestic companies may contribute to the stability of the market.  Insurance firms could play the important role on that.  Many spectators sense that the market could witness some stability. 

Could Dalal Street investors look forward to a few months of temporary relief from volatility? Some believe so after the market, during the current month, weathered the worst corporate malfeasance in Indian history and also showed resilience to withstand one of the worst quarterly earnings season in recent time.  

The BSE sensex closed just about 300 points (3%) lower at 9,424. And investors are poorer by about Rs 1.4 lakh crore with BSE’s market capitalization now at Rs 29 lakh crore. “The worst corporate scam and a bad results season is behind us. The exipry (of January derivatives contracts) is also over. So for the current quarter, unless something goes wrong drastically, the market could see some relief.” 

Domestic companies, especially insurance firms, could play an important role in bringing in some stability to the market. “Foreign funds, which are still cautious, are selling but insurance firms are buying.”   Institutional trading data on the BSE showed that in January while FIIs have net sold stocks worth nearly Rs 5,200 crore, net buying by domestic institutions was at about Rs 3,700 crore.  

Observers feel the market could witness some stability till the Lok Sabha elections. The feeling on the street is with polls expected in April-May, investors could expect to see less volatile markets at least till March-end.  

In Friday’s market, after a shaky start, rally in heavyweights like Reliance Inds and SBI, along with stocks like DLF, Jaiprakash Associates and Hindalo helped the sensex recoup about 350 points to the day’s high of 9,438 and closed near that level. Of the 30 sensex stocks, 25 ended higher while five ended lower. The day’s rally was helped by positive expectations in RIL which would soon start production of gas in its KG6 basin. The late buying momentum was also helped by strong cues from the Asian and European markets.  

   

Ref: The Times of India

Expect thin and volatile trade ahead of holidays December 23, 2008

Posted by dhirendra1972 in Domestic Institution, Domestic Mutual Funds, Foreign funds, Global Crude price, Global economic, Trading volume, Volatility.
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Equities are seen volatile in a truncated trading week, as investors would shuffle trading positions in the run-up to the December series futures and options expirations on Wednesday.  The possibility of dip in trading volumes due to a likely decline in foreign institutional participation on account of the Christmas and New Year celebrations, could add to the volatility.

 

In the likely absence of normal foreign fund activity, domestic institutions are expected to play a key role in determining the market direction. But it is unclear whether domestic mutual funds, which are still sitting on  cash, would purchase aggressively at this juncture, as benchmark indices have rebounded almost 20% in the month, even though the global economic condition shows no signs of improvement.


Fund managers said they would purchase shares selectively as of now, but do not rule out another bout of selling, if indices rise another 5-7%.

Analysts believe the impact of US government’s much-awaited bailout package for troubled auto giants — General Motors and Chrysler LLC — on the broader investor sentiment is likely to be minimal. Shares of auto ancillary companies are expected to rise, as US auto giants contribute a large chunk to their revenues. On Friday, US markets ended mixed, following the auto sector bailout announcement.
 
Analysts said the extent of the decline in global crude prices carries more significance at the moment, especially for India, because of its impact on inflation and interest rates. In India, inflation declined to a nine-month low, a week after the government cut administered auto fuel prices, sparking hopes of further interest rate cuts by the central bank soon.

 

Ref:  thetimesofindia

 

Rupee seen watching stock flows for cues December 11, 2008

Posted by dhirendra1972 in Asin Share markets, Foreign funds, Foreign Investors, Local Market.
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Good morning friends.  Start of the week again.  As usual I’m not missing the chance to know what is happening to the world especially to India. 

The rupee may be hesitant in early deals given mixed signals from Asian share markets, with traders looking to see if there is follow up to strong buying of stocks by foreign investors.

* The partially convertible rupee closed at 49.03/04 on Wednesday, 1.1 percent stronger than its previous close of 49.58/59. It rose as high as 48.88 during trade, its strongest since Nov. 17.

* Around 8:40 a.m., Japan’s Nikkei index was down 0.8 percent, Hong Kong’s main index was down 0.1 percent and South Korea’s index was up 0.9 percent.

In Singapore, NIFTY index futures were up 1.3 percent, suggesting a stronger opening for local markets.

* Foreign funds bought a net $238 million of shares in the three sessions to Monday, but are net sellers of $13.6 billion so far in 2008. Last year they had bought a record $17.4 billion.

* One-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts were quoting at 49.10/25, almost steady compared to the onshore spot rates, a reversal from much weaker rates seen in recent weeks.

ref: yahooindia

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