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Expect thin and volatile trade ahead of holidays December 23, 2008

Posted by dhirendra1972 in Domestic Institution, Domestic Mutual Funds, Foreign funds, Global Crude price, Global economic, Trading volume, Volatility.
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Equities are seen volatile in a truncated trading week, as investors would shuffle trading positions in the run-up to the December series futures and options expirations on Wednesday.  The possibility of dip in trading volumes due to a likely decline in foreign institutional participation on account of the Christmas and New Year celebrations, could add to the volatility.

 

In the likely absence of normal foreign fund activity, domestic institutions are expected to play a key role in determining the market direction. But it is unclear whether domestic mutual funds, which are still sitting on  cash, would purchase aggressively at this juncture, as benchmark indices have rebounded almost 20% in the month, even though the global economic condition shows no signs of improvement.


Fund managers said they would purchase shares selectively as of now, but do not rule out another bout of selling, if indices rise another 5-7%.

Analysts believe the impact of US government’s much-awaited bailout package for troubled auto giants — General Motors and Chrysler LLC — on the broader investor sentiment is likely to be minimal. Shares of auto ancillary companies are expected to rise, as US auto giants contribute a large chunk to their revenues. On Friday, US markets ended mixed, following the auto sector bailout announcement.
 
Analysts said the extent of the decline in global crude prices carries more significance at the moment, especially for India, because of its impact on inflation and interest rates. In India, inflation declined to a nine-month low, a week after the government cut administered auto fuel prices, sparking hopes of further interest rate cuts by the central bank soon.

 

Ref:  thetimesofindia

 

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